Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
